Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns
نویسنده
چکیده
Deep downturns • The world has been plagued by episodic deep downturns • 2008 crisis most recent • In spite of alleged " better " knowledge of economic system, and belief among many that we had put economic fluctuations behind us • Evidence is belief in those models may have contributed to crisis • Ideas about Great Moderation, ability of economy through diversification to effectively eliminate risk contributed to complacency • Supported by (pre-crisis) DSGE models • Which did well in " stable " times, but had little to say about crises • Almost any " decent " model would do well in " normal " times • Similar hubris exhibited in earlier crises (Kindleberger)
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